Emerging Countries and the « Return of Geopolitics » - Economic and Geopolitical Cross-Sectional Perspectives : Tanzania, Colombia, Kazakhstan
In 2014, the deceleration of global growth trends revealed wide disparities between emerging countries. While the big emerging countries face a decline in their growth potential, smaller ones continue to show resilience and drive in what seems to be a difficult international grid.
The year 2014 also brought along some international tensions, leading to a discursive shift entailing a "return of geopolitics" perspective, which in other words explains a return to classical power politics. This consequently questions, both directly and indirectly, the established order, and explains the scope and context of the respective crises, though these vary by region.
Against this backdrop, the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and OCP Policy Center launched in 2014 the “IFRI-OCP Policy Center Roundtables” to analyze the nature of the link between development challenges and the emergence of the "return of geopolitics" approach. These series of roundtables, which take place biannually, bring together researchers, and public and private sector experts interested in the challenges and opportunities of economic development in the face of an ever-changing geopolitical order.
The objective of this conference is to examine the link between economic development on the one hand, and challenges of the "return of geopolitics" on the other, as both of these respective stances hold important ground while explaining the existence of developing countries in a complicated world order. This will enable a juxtaposition of these two perspectives, while addressing both large emerging countries and smaller, less obvious ones that, by definition, may not have the same objectives.
Speakers will be consequently working on both levels, contributing to a better understanding of development and its implications. The methodological interest lies in the intersection of economic and geopolitical approaches to better discern the nature of the trends and try to identify points of logical dissonance.
The first edition of this event, which took place in December 2014 in Rabat, Morocco, discussed China, Russia, Turkey and Morocco. The second edition was held in May 2015 in Paris, France and addressed the cases of Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Brazil, and Indonesia. The third edition, which took place in Rabat, Morocco, tackled the cases of Ethiopia, South Africa, DRC, Mexico, India, and Vietnam. For our fourth edition in Dakar the following countries have be addressed: Senegal, Malaysia, Kenya, Argentina, Egypt and Angola. Our fifth and final edition will be introduced by a methodology panel on the return of geopolitics and address the cases of Tanzania, Thailand, Colombia and Kazakhstan.
Thursday, March 07
|09:00 – 09:15||
|09:15 – 10:45||
COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT IN A CHANGING GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
|10:45 – 11:00||
|11:00 – 12:30||
SESSION 1: TANZANIA
|12:30 – 14:15||
|14:15 – 15:45||
SESSION 2: KAZAKHSTAN
|15:45 – 16:00||
|16:00 – 17:30||
SESSION 4: COLOMBIA
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Senior Fellow, OCP Policy Center
Abdelhak Bassou occupied several offices within the Directorate General of the Moroccan National Security where he was Borders’ Division Chief from 1978 to 1993. He was the former Director of the Royal Institute of Police in 1998. He also served as the Chief of Regional Security (Errachidia 1999-2003, Sidi Kacem 2003-2005) and was also Head of the Central General Intelligence from 2006 to 2009.
He contributed to the output of several international organizations endeavors including the Council of Arab Interior Ministers from 1986 to 1992, where he represented the Directorate General of National Security in several meetings. Abdelhak Bassou holds a Master’s Degree in Political Science and International Studies from the Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences of Agdal in Rabat.
Executive Director, Board of the World Bank
Otaviano Canuto Senior Fellow at OCP Policy Center and, for a second time, Executive Director at the Board of the World Bank for Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Philippines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. A former vice president and senior adviser at the World Bank, he has also previously served as an executive director of the IMF and as a vice president of the Inter-American Development Bank. Prior to those positions, he was State Secretary for International Affairs at the Ministry of Finance in Brazil and a professor of economics at University of São Paulo and UNICAMP.
Karim El Aynaoui
Managing Director, OCP Policy Center
Karim El Aynaoui is currently Managing Director of OCP Policy Center, a think tank based in Rabat. He also serves as advisor to the CEO and Chairman of OCP Group, a global leader in the phosphate sector. From 2005 to 2012, he worked at Bank Al-Maghrib, the Central Bank of Morocco. He was the Director of Economics and International Relations, where he provided strategic leadership in defining and supporting monetary policy analysis and strategy. He was also in charge of the Statistical and International Relations Divisions of the Central Bank, led the research division and was a member of the Governor’s Cabinet. Before joining Bank Al-Maghrib, Karim El Aynaoui worked for eight years at the World Bank, both in its Middle Eastern and North Africa, and Africa regions as an economist. He has published papers, books and articles in scientific journals on macroeconomic issues in developing countries. Recently, he co-authored a book outlining a growth strategy for Morocco and was the guest editor of a special issue on food price volatility in Oxford Economic Papers. Karim El Aynaoui is a board member of the OCP Foundation, a member of the Strategic Advisory Board of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) and a member of the COP22 Scientific Committee. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Bordeaux, where he taught for three years courses in statistics and economics.
Visiting Professor in the School of Social Science and Public Policy at Kings College, LondonNik Gowing was a main news presenter for the BBC’s international 24-hour news channel BBC World News 1996-2014. He presented The Hub with Nik Gowing, BBC World Debates, Dateline London, plus location coverage of major global stories. For 18 years he worked at ITN where he was bureau chief in Rome and Warsaw, and Diplomatic Editor for Channel Four News (1988-1996). He has been a member of the councils of Chatham House (1998–2004), the Royal United Services Institute (2005–present), and the Overseas Development Institute (2007-2014), the board of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy including vice chair (1996-2005), and the advisory council at Wilton Park (1998-2012). In 1994 he was a fellow at the Joan Shorenstein Barone Center in the J. F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. He is a board member for the Hay Literature Festival.In 2014 Nik was appointed a Visiting Professor at Kings College, London in the School of Social Science and Public Policy. In 2016 he is a Visiting Professor at Nanyang University, Singapore. From 2014 he was a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geo-Economics.In 2016 Nik Gowing co-authored interim findings of the “Thinking the Unthinkable” study.
Thomas Gomart is Director of Ifri. He has been Marie Curie Fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College (2003-2004), Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Security Studies of the European Union (2003), associate researcher at Ifri (2002-2003), Lavoisier Fellow at the State Institute of international Relations in Moscow (2001). Thomas Gomart obtained his doctorate degree in history of international relations (Paris I Panthéon -Sorbonne) and EMBA graduate (HEC Paris). He was Director of Ifri’s Strategic Development from September 2010 to March 2015 and created the Russia / NIS Centre of which he was director from 2004 to 2013. As Researcher, he is currently working on Russia, digital governance, country risk, and think tanks. He recently published “The Return of Geopolitical Risk - Russia, China and the United States”, Etudes de l’Ifri, Apr. 2016, “Le monde selon Trump. Anticiper la nouvelle politique étrangère américaine”, (ed.), Etudes de l’Ifri, Nov. 2016, as well as Notre intérêt national. Quelle politique étrangère pour la France ?, (eds., with Thierry de Montbrial), Editions Odile Jacob, Jan. 2017.
Senior Fellow, OCP Policy Center
Dr Yves Jégourel is associate professor in finance at the University of Bordeaux (France), and affiliate professor at Toulouse Business School. Y. Jégourel conducts research in commodity economics and financial risk management. His most recent research examines the link between the volatility of the futures market, exchange rate uncertainty and the export of cereals. He is also the head of a master program focused on banking, finance and international trading both at the University of Bordeaux and at Vietnam National University (Hanoi, Vietnam).
Dr. Jégourel has authored several books in the field of finance, including a work studying financial derivatives. He holds a BA from Middlesex University and a MsC and a PhD from the University of Bordeaux, and is a former auditor with the Institute of Higher National Defence Studies (IHEDN).
Director, Russia/NIS Center, Ifri
Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean holds a degree from the State University of Ekaterinbourg, a Franco-Russian Master in International Relations from the University of Sciences Po/MGIMO in Moscow, and a DEA (Diplôme d'études approfondies) in International Relations. Among her research areas: evolution of Russian domestic and foreign policies, soft power, Ukraine, education and human capital. She directs the Russie.Nei.Visions. Recent publications include: « Pourquoi la société russe soutient-elle la politique actuelle du Kremlin ? », Les Études du CERI, Sciences Po, n° 228-229, Regards sur l'Eurasie, février 2017 ; « La Russie après les crises ukrainienne et syrienne »,RAMSES 2017, Ifri/Dunod, 2016 ; « Le système Poutine : bâti pour durer ? », Politique étrangère, n°2, 2015 and « Russia’s Domestic Evolution, What Impact on its Foreign Policy? », Russie.Nei.Visions, n° 84, April 2015.
Executive Director, Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF)
Dr. Tausi Mbaga Kida is the Executive Director of the Economic and Social Research Foundation (ESRF), a Policy Think Tank based in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Prior to her appointment to the post of Executive Director, Dr. Kida was the Director of Programmes at ESRF since February 2011. She has authored a number of publications including chapters in books and articles in international journals.
During her progressive career as social economic researcher, Dr. Kida has undertaken a profound role in policy development processes in Tanzania and in East Africa. She is currently a member of Steering Committee for developing Tanzania’s second Five Years Development Plan 2016/17 – 2021/22. In addition, Dr. Kida is at the forefront in coordinating the process of mainstreaming of Sustainable Development Goals into Tanzania’s development policies, plans and strategies. In this regard, four main processes are being led by Dr. Kida namely (a) Developing a framework for Research Agenda on SDGs in Tanzania, (b) Developing a framework on localization strategy of SDGs in Tanzania, (c) Developing a framework of monitoring of SDGs in Tanzania and preparation of communication and dissemination strategy for SDGs in Tanzania.
PhD Candidate, Les Afriques dans le Monde, Sciences Po Bordeaux
Cyrielle Maingraud-Martinaud is a PhD candidate from Sciences Po Bordeaux / Les Afriques dans le Monde. Her research focuses on the contemporary dynamics of electoral authoritarian regimes and dominant-party systems. She is currently writing her dissertation on the 2015 Tanzanian elections, focusing on the interaction between religious, traditional and political actors. She conducted an extensive 2 years fieldwork in various regions in Tanzania and was a teaching fellow at the University of Dar es Salaam in 2014/2015.
She recently published "Une hégémonie compétitive contre vents et marées : les élections générales de 2015 en Tanzanie et à Zanzibar", (with Marie-Aude Fouéré), Politique Africaine, 2015/4 (n°140).
Senior Analyst for Latin America, Elcano Royal Institute
Carlos Malamud (Buenos Aires, 1951) is Professor of Latin American History at the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Madrid, Spain and Senior Analyst for Latin America at the Elcano Royal Institute. In 2015 he was selected by Esglobal among the "50 most influential Iberoamerican intellectuals”.
He has been a Senior Associate Member (SAM) at St. Antony's College, University of Oxford, and visiting research at the Universidad de los Andes, Colombia (Chair Corona), and Di Tella University in Buenos Aires. Between 1986 and 2002 he directed the Latin American program of the Instituto Universitario Institute Ortega y Gasset, which has also been his deputy director.
He lectured at the Complutense University of Madrid and San Pablo CEU. Member of the Advisory Council of the Cultural Institute of the MAPFRE Foundation. Currently he combines his work as a historian with political analyst and international relations in Latin America.
He has written numerous books and articles on Latin American history, among which are:, Populismos latinoamericanos. Los tópicos de ayer, de hoy y de siempre, Ed. Nobel, Oviedo, 2010 and Sin marina, sin tesoro y casi sin soldados. La financiación de la reconquista de América, 1810 – 1826, Centro de Estudios Bicentenario, Santiago de Chile, 2007.
Research Fellow, Sub-Saharan Africa Program, Ifri
Clélie Nallet is a Research Fellow with the Sub-Saharan Africa Program at Ifri. Her research focuses on African socio-economic transformations and urban dynamics. She holds a PhD in political science from Sciences Po. Bordeaux, where she devoted her thesis to the study of Ethiopian “middle classes”. She has conducted numerous surveys on living standards and lifestyles, mainly in Addis Ababa, Niamey and Kinshasa. Clélie is also an expert on issues related to the private sector in the South and was deputy editor in chief of Private Sector & Development magazine.
Chairman, Global Resources Partnership
Mehmet Öğütçü has built significant knowledge and experience on policy and business matters, with a particular geographic focus on Europe, Central Asia, Russia, the Middle East and China.
Currently, Mr. Öğütçü chairs Global Resources Partnership, UK, sits on the boards of Genel Energy plc, Sisecam Group plc and Saudi Crown Holding, serves as Special Envoy of the Energy Charter for MENA region, and as Executive Chair of the Bosphorus Energy Club, an exclusive gathering of the senior executives and leaders in finance, energy and politics across Turkey, Eurasia, the Middle East and Africa.
In his early career, Mr. Öğütçü worked as deputy inspector on the board of Is Bankasi, Turkey’s largest private bank, and undertook projects as a NATO Research Fellow and one of the EU’s Jean Monnet fellows. He was a prominent diplomat, having worked on critical “economic and energy diplomacy” dossiers in Ankara, Beijing, Brussels and Paris, and later as an advisor to the late Turkish Prime Minister Turgut Ozal.
Senior Fellow, OCP Policy Center
Francis Perrin worked for several years as a journalist and freelance consultant on energy and mining resources before joining in 1991 the Paris-based Arab Petroleum Research Center (APRC). He was editor in chief of Arab Oil & Gas (AOG) and Pétrole et Gaz Arabes (PGA) between 1991 and 2000 and editorial manager of the publications of the APRC from 2001 to the end of 2011.Francis Perrin set up at the beginning of 2012 Stratégies et Politiques Energétiques (SPE). He is the Chairman of SPE. He is also the Chairman of Energy Industries Strategies Information (EISI).
Francis Perrin is also giving lectures at the Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques and at the Lyon 3 Jean Moulin University. He is a Senior Research Fellow at IRIS, a senior adviser to SPTEC Advisory and an associate editor to the Paris-based energy weekly Petrostrategies. He is the author of the chapters on crude oil and refined products in "Cyclope - World Commodity Yearbook", an annual report on commodities published in Paris by the editions Economica.
Associate professor, EMLYON Business School and Research Fellow, Ecole Polytechnique
Philippe Silberzahn is Associate Professor at EMLYON Business School. He is also a Research Fellow at Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, France and a visiting lecturer at HEC Paris, CEDEP, EPFL/HEC Lausanne, and Solvay Brussels School of Business and Economics.
His research interests lie at the intersection of strategy, innovation, and entrepreneurship. He studies how businesses deal with radical uncertainty. He explores the role and actions of entrepreneurs and innovators in this process of markets and organization creation, and how large organizations manage strategic surprises and disruptions. He has authored and co-authored five books in French and English on entrepreneurship, innovation, and strategy as well as many academic articles on these topics.
As a consultant and management educator, he has worked with companies including AXA, Renault Group, Royal Canin, Alcatel-Lucent, Saint-Gobain, TOTAL, and EDF. Prior to his academic career, he had over twenty years of industry experience as an entrepreneur and CEO, having participated in the creation or acquisition of four high technology firms, and as an international consultant in India, China, Europe and the US. From 2004 till 2009, he was a Research Associate at INSEAD in Fontainebleau, France.
Emeritus Professor of International Political Economy, INSEAD
Jonathan Story is Emeritus Professor of International Political Economy at INSEAD. Prior to joining INSEAD in 1974, he worked in Brussels and Washington, where he obtained his PhD from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
At the INSEAD campus, in Fontainebleau and Singapore, he has taught European and world politics, markets, and business in the MBA, and PhD programs. He taught on INSEAD’s flagship Advanced Management Programme for three decades, as well as on other Executive Development and Company Specific courses. Jonathan Story works with governments, international organisations and multinational corporations.
His latest contributions include chapters on global energy, the global dynamics, and “The Business School: Serving Mammon or the University”, in The Purpose of Business, Palgrave, 2015, (eds. Albert Erisman, David Gautschi); the “Euro Crisis and German Primacy”, in The Eurozone Crisis and the Future of Europe, Palgrave, 2014, (eds Daniel Daianu, Giorgio Basevi). He is a regular contributor to newspapers, and has been four times winner of the European Case Clearing House “Best Case of the Year” award. His latest cases detail hotel investments in Egypt and Argentina, as well as a women’s garment manufacturer in Sri Lanka and a Chinese auto parts producer.
Professor, Sciences Po Paris & Senior Fellow, OCP Policy Center
Alfredo Valladão is Professor at the Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA) of Sciences Po Paris. Alongside this position, he is the President of the Advisory Board of the EU-Brazil Association in Brussels, the Director of the Latin America Research Chair at CESEM-HEM, in Morocco, a Member of the Board of Trustees of UNITAR, and a columnist for Radio France International (RFI). He previously held a position as Director of the Mercosur Chair of Sciences Po (1999-2010), and he is the former Coordinator of the Working Group on EU-Mercosur Negotiations and of the International Conference of Forte Copacabana on European-South American Defense and Security Dialogue. Professor Valladão has published extensively on geopolitics, global economics, regional integration and trade negotiations, Brazil and Latin America. He holds a PhD in Political Sciences from Sciences Po Paris