Think • Stimulate • Bridge

OCP Policy Center’s blog is an open debate and exchange platform where experts share comments, reviews, analyses, charts, opinions and facts related to the Think Tank’s programs and research topics.

 

Beyond the Ballot: Turkey’s Economy at the Crossroads

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : April 03, 2017

Turkey has been approaching a crossroads for some time now. Soon enough it will have to choose a direction.

On April 16, 2017 Turks will vote in a referendum on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposed constitutional amendment that would shift the country’s power center from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. 

Colombia: Getting Peace, Getting Growth

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : March 23, 2017

Colombia is a country of incredible contrast: known to be one of the places on earth where people feel happiest, it is also one of the most unequal and for many decades, a country immersed in a protracted conflict. Despite the latter - and here is the starkest contrast - Colombia has recently succeeded in reducing poverty and building the foundations for sustainable growth and prosperity.

The Santos administration has delivered on two of its main promises: sign a peace agreement with the FARC guerrilla and get approved a significant structural tax reform. We approach here why both are expected to become strong pillars to help keep the growth-cum-poverty-reduction momentum of the last decades. 

NAFTA in Play: How President Trump could reshape trade in North America

Uri Dadush | Posted : March 07, 2017

During his run for President of the United States, Mr. Trump called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), “the worst trade deal ever approved by this country”. His target is Mexico, which runs a $ 50 billion surplus of trade in goods and services with the United States. Trade with Canada, the third NAFTA party, is essentially balanced. However, NAFTA’s provisions cannot be changed without affecting Canada and without Canada’s consent, and the Foreign Ministers of Canada and Mexico have declared that they want the new NAFTA to be negotiated trilaterally, not bilaterally as Mr. Trump prefers

The Brazilian Debt Hangover

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : January 25, 2017

In previous pieces, we have analyzed the run up to the still-ongoing Brazilian recession as a combination of factors. Given an “anemia” of productivity increases, an appetite for public spending without prioritization led to a condition of fiscal “obesity”. The external factors that provided for a boom in the new millennium, notwithstanding underlying vulnerabilities, have dissipated. The economic policy adopted as a response to the growth decline aggravated those vulnerabilities. On top of those, a disruption of existing large domestic corporate structures followed broad corruption investigations (Canuto, 2016a) (Canuto, 2016b) (Canuto, 2016c)

Atlantic Dialogues – African Economies Integrate The New Global Context

Thomas Awazu | Posted : January 02, 2017

This year, under the patronage of His Majesty King Mohammed VI, the OCP Policy Center (OCPPC) - in collaboration with the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS) - hosted and organized the fifth Atlantic Dialogues, gathering over 300 high-level international public- and private-sector leaders from the Atlantic Basin to discuss cross-regional issues ranging from economic and social development, security and trade, to migration, resources, and energy. This year’s event, located at the Hotel La Mamounia in Marrakech from the 14th to the 16th of December 2016, addressed the theme "Changing Mental Maps: Strategies for an Atlantic Area in Transition". The participants, coming from the various sectors of the economy and all quadrants of the Atlantic, engaged in a series of interactive panels and smaller break-out sessions on the above-mentioned topics. As countries of “the South” have become aware of the potential they represent, they aspire to a better cooperation amongst themselves accompanied with a better integration in the entire Atlantic basin. In this framework, understanding past and previous global contexts becomes crucial for such economies, through innovative and sound public policy, to incorporate the complex and evolving global economy.

Ce qu’écrire veut dire

Abdallah Saaf | Posted : November 25, 2016

En décembre 2010, je sortais d’une librairie du quartier de l’Agdal à Rabat lorsque je suis tombé sur un journaliste d’un quotidien de grande diffusion que j’ai connu comme étudiant de troisième cycle à la faculté où j’enseigne. Les événements de Tunisie battaient alors leur plein. Nous échangeâmes quelques commentaires sur les dernières péripéties du régime de Benali. Le lendemain, à ma grande surprise, sur « la une » du journal, je découvrais que j’avais fait une déclaration sur ce qui se passait en Tunisie, avec ma photo, alors qu’il n’en était rien. Le journaliste me faisait prendre position et même commenter les événements en cours ! Pourtant, à ce stade de la révolution tunisienne, je m’abstenais de tout commentaire, par prudence académique, les faits étaient alors encore confus. Le sens de ce qui se passait était peu lisible.

La valse des prix des bruts

Yves Jégourel | Posted : November 21, 2016

Sans surprise, le West Texas Intermediate et le Brent, les deux grandes références de prix du brut, ont entamé depuis fin septembre une valse dont les mondes économiques et politiques observent avec attention les différents mouvements. Leurs prix ont bondi d’environ 15% entre le 27 septembre et le 10 octobre, atteignant alors plus de 50 USD/bbl, avant de replonger ensuite sur le mois suivant pour toucher leur plus bas niveau depuis deux mois. Dernier développement en date : un nouveau rebond depuis le 14 novembre faisant repasser le Brent et le WTI au-dessus du seuil des 45USD/bbl (graphique 1). 

Mr. Trump: Can You Deliver it?

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : November 15, 2016

U.S. assets reacted in a see-saw fashion to Donald Trump’s victory. Stock futures first dove deeply before climbing up to strong gains as investors developed a view on what kind of economic policy president-elect Trump is likely to pursue. They seem to be pricing in an expectation of higher growth and inflation, as well as an earlier Federal Reserve exit from ultra-low interest rates and from holding U$ 4.45 trillion of Treasury bonds.